Offshore wind is one of the key pillars of Polish energy transition. Given the right conditions and appropriate support, wind from the Baltic Sea can contribute to the energy security of the country and to consolidation of the Polish economy through creation of a modern and stable supply chain. Poland may become a leader in offshore wind development in the Baltic Sea region and in Europe — we only need to properly estimate and subsequently harness the potential of the Baltic Sea. The currently assumed 11 GW is already being verified in the government’s update to the Energy Policy of Poland until 2040 (EPP 2040). The industry is also verifying the assumptions. In accordance with the Polish Wind Energy Association, with proper planning we may achieve much more, therefore, the installed capacity potential will be re-assessed.
Baltic Sea offers one of the best conditions for offshore wind farm development. Very good wind conditions coupled with shallow waters — Baltic Sea is the shallowest sea in the world, with average depth of only 55 m — make it a perfect location. Therefore, offshore wind development potential in the Polish part of the Baltic Sea is deemed to be among the highest in the region.
Polish Exclusive Economic Zone covers an area of approximately 22.5 thousand km2. The Spatial Development Plan for Polish Maritime Areas, adopted in June 2021, allocates only some 2 thousand km2 for offshore wind.
“To ensure secure and stable supply of electricity in Poland and to support the ambitious EU climate goals, we have to develop renewable energy sources, in particular offshore wind — the technology exhibiting the highest potential among all renewable sources. We expect the pace of decarbonsiation of the Polish economy assumed in EPP 2040 soon to become too slow compared to the political and economic changes in Europe and throughout the world. This may be a historic opportunity for our country to foster innovation and competitiveness based on new technologies and development of new industries. Wind energy will be the basis of such a scheme,” said Janusz Gajowiecki, President of the Polish Wind Energy Association.
EPP 2040 indicates the need for a rapid growth of the offshore sector, which in the future is to become one of the pillars of Poland’s energy system. Part of the update to the document, being prepared by the government, includes increased ambitions related to offshore wind. In the current version, EPP 2040 provides for the achievement of approximately 11 GW of installed capacity in offshore wind farms in 2040.
“Offshore wind development in Poland entails substantial opportunities for new jobs, support for local production and service business involved in the supply chain as well as for building a strong position of the Polish entrepreneurs in the regional, European and global offshore wind value chain. We are happy that offshore wind in Poland is experiencing dynamic growth. We set ambitious targets for ourselves, for we want to promote the development of the national economy, increase the share of RES in the energy mix and support the entire value chain,” said Ireneusz Zyska, Secretary of State in Ministry of Climate and Environment, Government Representative for Renewable Energy Sources.
European Commission estimates offshore wind potential in the Baltic Sea region at 93 GW by 2050. In accordance with a report prepared by Wind Europe and PWEA, as much as 28 GW can be attributed to Poland, giving the country the highest potential among all Baltic Sea basin countries. Additionally, efficient planning and full exploitation of the resources in question may entail a 65% share of local offshore supply chain[1]. WindEurope expects that, assuming dynamic growth of offshore wind, by 2030 the sector may contribute EUR 50 billion to the EU’s GDP. Considering the tremendous potential of the national offshore wind sector, this is a great opportunity for the development of the Polish economy.
“Cooperation between all stakeholders, both on the regulatory and industrial side, is key to optimum offshore wind development. This is clearly apparent for the offshore market leader, UK. Long-term and clear ambitions in terms of offshore wind volume, supported by a transparent auction scheme, efficient permit allocation and open-minded attitude of local entities to cooperation with foreign investors resulted in UK being a clear example of the role offshore wind may play in decarbonisation and revival of local economy and creation of new jobs. Investment expenditures on the construction of 4.8 GW of new installed capacity in offshore wind farms in Europe in 2021 amounted to EUR 16.6 billion. Poland may become one of beneficiaries of that development,” said Małgosia Bartosik, Deputy CEO of Wind Europe.
Interest in project implementation in Poland is clearly apparent and declared by many entities. The group of investors interested in securing rights to areas in the Polish part of the Baltic Sea, where wind farm projects could be build, is growing.
A report prepared for PWEA by Morski Instytut UMG, Ramboll and KP Consulting[2] will re-assess the potential of installed capacity and energy yield of the current areas enabling offshore wind development. The report will also specify new areas for prospective projects that would require substantial involvement of investors, the state and funds to be effectively completed. Experience of other countries demonstrates the game is worth it. The wind industry achieves a turnover close to EUR 60 billion, 65% of which contributes to the EU economy. This means that out of each EUR 1,000 of revenue, EUR 650 remains in the EU and contributes to GDP growth. Wind energy sector may create approximately 450 thousand new jobs by 2030, of which 250 thousand onshore and approximately 200 thousand offshore[3]. Poland could have its substantially fair share of the beneifts.
However, cooperation with international companies, which through their vast knowledge and experience in implementation of offshore wind farm projects globally may aid Polish investors in harnessing the tremendous potential of offshore wind, may prove important. Additionally, such a cooperation is an opportunity to decrease CAPEX of new projects in Poland. Know-how from the more mature markets demonstrates that establishment of effective alliances with experienced foreign partners will help to build a strong offshore wind sector in Poland in a cost-effective manner that contributes to the national industry. In this context one has to remember that foreign entities implementing such projects for many years have well-established supply chains. The cooperation would enable Polish enterprises to access these supply chains, hence foreign markets. Moreover, it should be noted that harnessing the tremendous potential of Polish maritime areas for offshore wind brings energy independence to Poland. We have to follow the example of countries such as United Kingdom, the Netherlands, Germany or USA, which increase their offshore wind goals, because they see its vast potential for contribution to the national economy and improvement of energy security. This is particularly important today, in the face of the war in Ukraine and Russian energy blackmail.
[1] http://psew.pl/przyszlosc-lokalnego-lancucha-dostaw-w-sektorze-morskiej-energetyki-wiatrowej-na-baltyku/
[2] The report is scheduled to be launched in Autumn 2022. The PWEA report on the potential of offshore wind in Poland is being prepared with the aid of European Climate Foundation.
[3] https://windeurope.org/intelligence-platform/product/wind-energy-and-economic-recovery-in-europe/