RES potential demonstrates the capability to produce more than 100 TWh of renewable energy per year by 2030 — substantially more than 50% of electricity demand in Poland. Onshore and offshore wind farms alone may contribute almost 25 GW of new capacity. Onshore wind and PV has the highest, achievable potential, demonstrated by RES auctions and the resulting volumes, the “Development Plan in the Area of Meeting Current and Future Demand for electricity for the years 2023-2032” published by PSE reveals.
Polskie Sieci Elektroenergetyczne’s “2023–2032 Transmission System Development Plan” announces a major technological revolution in line with the models provided by highly developed power systems with high RES share in the generation mix.
The 2023–2032 plan demonstrates a substantial potential of RES sources that could be built. Basing only on the sum of capacity of existing sources, concluded interconnection agreements or issued grid connection conditions and the capacity of offshore wind farms, laid down in the Offshore Wind Support Act, within the next 10 years the National Power System may gain:
- 25 GW of onshore and offshore wind farms, capable of producing 77 TWh per year,
- more than 20 GW of PV sources (self-consumers built after 31 December 2021 not included), capable of producing 21 TWh.
“The PSE document clearly demonstrates the lack of any technological barriers preventing Polish energy mix from being supplied with inexpensive and green electricity from wind and PV farms. However, there are other serious barriers that currently block RES development and may preclude such a high share of these sources in the energy mix. It is crucial to unblock onshore wind as soon as possible implement the necessary changes to offshore wind farm financing,” said Professor Professor Piotr Kacejko, PhD, Eng from Lublin University of Technology, member of the Committee on Electrical Engineering of the Polish Academy of Sciences.
Together with production potential of other RES types, this means the capability to produce more than 100 TWh of renewable energy per year by 2030 — substantially more than 50% of net electricity demand in Poland, considering the current forecasts, much more than the levels assumed in the national strategic documents. Moreover — with such assumptions and following completion of investments specified in the Plan, PSE states that “a statement that the power grid is limiting renewable energy sources development is illegitimate”.
“PSE calculations confirm the importance of the development potential of renewable energy sources, in particular onshore wind. However, to implement the plans it is crucial to eliminate the key barrier for increase in onshore wind capacity — the 10H rule. The limitation will most likely result in the lack of onshore wind in the next auctions to be held in December, what hinders ambitious plans of Poland, and now also PSE plans. The new minimum distance of 500 m in the liberalisation of the act will secure new wind megawatts within 2 years, with onshore wind potential reaching as much as 22 GW in subsequent years,” emphasized Janusz Gajowiecki, President of the Polish Wind Energy Association.
The PSE’s plan also assumes the first large technological revolution in line with the models provided by highly developed power systems with high RES share in the generation mix — construction of a HVDC line connecting 2 clearly visible areas in Poland — the north and the south. The purpose of the investment is to enable electricity produced in onshore and offshore wind farms located in the north to be transmitted to industrial plants located in the south.