In order to meet the targets of the EU energy policy it is necessary to bring Poland back on track of wind power development. Over the last 10 years a potential was built in RES capable of producing slightly over 20 TWh of green energy per year, but to meet the 2020 target in the electricity sector it is necessary to generate over 30 TWh. We are therefore still a long way off, and the introduction of the auction scheme has halted investments in RES for a year and a half.
The existence of an investment gap was repeatedly questioned by the government, and what is more – comments often appear that the RES sector was developing faster than intended – therefore the Polish Wind Energy Association will carry out quarterly analyses presenting the level of meeting the indicative trajectory of yearly RES targets and forecasts of how far we are from reaching the 2020 target.
In the public debate there is often confusion between the indicators for RES share in the electricity sector, the share of RES in the energy sector, and the volume of mandatory redemption of green certificates. Poland will be required to meet the target of 15% share of RES in the energy sector. In order to meet that target, a trajectory of yearly targets was specified for the fuel, heating and electricity sectors, which are jointly supposed to amount to 15%. For the wind power sector, the target for the electricity sector is important, set at 19.13% for 2020. In turn, the indicators of obligation to redeem green certificates are one of the tools to support the development of renewable energy generation in the electricity sector in order to meet the 2020 target.
The analysis carried out by PWEA shows that over the last 6 years the yearly target for the share of green energy in Polish gross energy consumption was exceeded in 2012, 2014 and 2015, whereas in 2010, 2011 and 2013, green energy production was lower than the yearly target. The forecast also shows that the required level will not be reached in 2016. There is therefore no evidence of excessive development of the RES sector.
The data on installed capacity in the RES sector presented in government’s analyses do not fully illustrate the scale of the problem. Firstly, because yearly targets are measured in terms of energy production, not installed capacity. Secondly, the support to the RES sector in the form of green certificates is also calculated based on MWh of production, not on MW of installed capacity.
The forecast of meeting the target for RES share in the national gross energy consumption in 2016, based on actual data for the end of the first half of the year, shows that it can fall short by almost 1 TWh of green energy, and the RES share will be barely above 13%, whereas the target for 2016 is 13.85%. Despite this, the oversupply of green certificates continues to grow, which shows how dysfunctional the green certificate system currently is.
The forecasted shortage of energy production from RES compared to the target is mostly related to low production of energy from biomass, which should not be surprising in a situation where green certificate prices fell below 40 PLN/MWh. Energy production from wind should reach the forecasted level, although this will depend on wind conditions in the fourth quarter. PV is clearly developing much faster and it is highly likely for its production to exceed the planned level. It is a big question mark whether production from biogas will develop faster after covering agricultural biogas plants with the new “blue” certificate, and whether the forecasted production from co-firing is met, as its continuation has no justification with green certificate prices at such a low level.
